XRP Price on the Brink: $115M Coinbase Transfer Raises Concerns, But Bulls Eye $3 Breakout

XRP price is under intense market scrutiny following the transfer of 50.5 million XRP, worth approximately $115.4 million, to Coinbase on July 8. The large transaction, reported by blockchain tracker Whale Alert, has stirred concerns of an impending sell-off — a move that could drag the token below the critical $2 mark.

Historically, similar whale-sized transfers to centralized exchanges have signaled incoming liquidation, putting downward pressure on prices. With XRP already fighting to hold above the $2.30 resistance, the sudden influx to Coinbase has many investors bracing for a potential dip.

Yet, not all experts are sounding the alarm. Some analysts believe the move could be a liquidity management tactic rather than a direct prelude to mass selling. As a result, technical traders remain cautiously optimistic.

Technical Strength: XRP’s Bullish Reversal Still Intact

Despite the anxiety surrounding the large transaction, XRP’s technical setup paints a bullish picture. Analyst Ali Martinez pointed out the formation of an inverse head and shoulders pattern, a classic indicator of a trend reversal. If the XRP price manages a breakout above the $2.33 neckline, it could spark a 12% surge, potentially lifting the price to $2.60.

Currently trading at $2.29, XRP is holding key technical levels. It remains above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $2.24 and the 200-day SMA of $1.80 — both of which signal strength in short- and long-term trends. The 14-day RSI of 56.93 also suggests healthy buying momentum without tipping into overbought territory.

Key Resistance Zones: The XRP Price Path to $3

Analysts agree that $2.33 to $2.38 is the resistance zone the XRP price must conquer to open the door to higher targets. Once cleared, the next levels to watch are $2.69 and $3.04. According to CasiTrades, a prominent crypto analyst, “momentum is building,” and reclaiming the $2.25 support was a “classic bullish continuation signal.”

Supporting the sentiment, analyst Dom highlighted XRP’s break above a 160-day downtrend and the Volume Weighted Average Prices (VWAPs), adding to the bullish thesis.

XRP/BTC Breakout Hints at Broader Upside

XRP is also outperforming against Bitcoin. The XRP/BTC trading pair broke a multimonth downtrend, forming a bullish divergence in RSI. While XRP/BTC had been posting lower lows, the RSI began rising — a classic indicator of waning bearish pressure.

Analyst Mikybull Crypto believes that breaching the 0.000022 resistance will confirm a significant upside. Some projections suggest that a confirmed breakout of the XRP/BTC pair could fuel up to 70% gains, further supporting a price surge above $3 for XRP/USD.

Institutional Interest and Regulatory Tailwinds

Beyond technicals, XRP is gaining from strong institutional momentum. Grayscale recently re-added XRP to its Digital Large Cap Fund — its first inclusion since regulatory hurdles were lifted. Moreover, ten XRP spot ETFs are awaiting review by U.S. regulators, with potential approval as early as October.

Adding more bullish fuel, Ripple’s application for a national bank charter with the U.S. Comptroller of the Currency could allow it to operate as a federally regulated trust bank — a monumental step that signals deepening ties between traditional finance and crypto.

Price Outlook: What’s Next for XRP?

In the short term, if the XRP price holds above $2.25 and breaks the $2.38 resistance, analysts project a move to $2.69 and $3.04. Longer-term predictions are even more optimistic, with Standard Chartered projecting $5.50 by Q4 2025, and $12.50 by 2028, citing increased adoption and XRP’s growing role in global cross-border transactions.

However, traders should remain cautious. XRP still faces resistance from a descending trendline originating in January 2025, and failure to breach the $2.33-$2.38 range could trigger a fallback to $2.05 or even $1.95.

Bottom Line

The $115 million Coinbase transfer has spooked markets, but XRP’s strong technical setup and institutional support suggest the dip may be short-lived. With ETF decisions pending, a bank charter on the horizon, and bullish chart patterns forming, XRP is in a high-stakes standoff between bearish fears and bullish breakout potential.

A decisive break above $2.38 could be the launchpad for the next phase of XRP’s bull run — one that might finally take it beyond the elusive $3 mark.