October 2025: Why XRP Faces Its Most Crucial Month Yet

Ripple and its native cryptocurrency XRP are heading into what could be the most decisive month in their history. Two major U.S. regulatory deadlines converge in October 2025, potentially reshaping XRP’s role in global finance and Ripple’s standing within the banking system.

SEC Decision on XRP ETF Applications

The first milestone is the long-awaited ruling from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on several spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications filed by CoinShares, Grayscale, and 21Shares. After two delays, the SEC must now issue a final decision by the end of October, with no further extensions allowed under U.S. law.

If approved, the XRP ETF would mark a watershed moment for the token, allowing regulated investment products tied to its spot market to be traded on U.S. exchanges. This move could dramatically increase institutional and retail access, putting XRP in the same regulatory league as Bitcoin and Ethereum, which already have approved ETFs.

Ripple’s Bid for a U.S. Bank License

Alongside the ETF ruling, Ripple is also awaiting a decision from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) on its application for a U.S. national bank charter. Filed in July 2025, the OCC is legally bound to respond within 120 days, again setting October as the deadline.

If granted, Ripple would become a nationally chartered bank, giving it the authority to expand beyond cross-border payments into broader banking operations. With significant XRP reserves, Ripple could also strengthen its balance sheet and position itself as a key player in U.S. financial infrastructure.

XRP Price Scenarios for October

Attorney Bill Morgan, a well-known legal expert on Ripple’s regulatory battles, has highlighted October as a “turning point” for both XRP and Ripple. Market expectations are building around three possible scenarios:

• Bullish Case: If both the SEC approves the ETF and Ripple secures its banking license, XRP could surge to $1.50–$2.00, driven by institutional adoption and heightened investor confidence.
• Base Case: If Ripple secures the license but the ETF is denied, XRP may stabilize between $0.80–$1.00, reflecting legitimacy but limited upside momentum.
• Bearish Case: A dual rejection could push XRP down to $0.55–$0.60, as regulatory setbacks dampen U.S. adoption and institutional interest.

With both rulings due in the same month, October 2025 could mark either XRP’s biggest breakthrough or a sobering setback. Investors and analysts alike are bracing for what may be the most critical moment in Ripple’s journey to reshape global finance.