Dogecoin Eyes Breakout as Whale Activity and Market Hype Reignite Bullish Momentum

With price action turning bullish and on-chain metrics showing increased whale accumulation, analysts are now speculating whether Dogecoin (DOGE) is gearing up to break the $0.25 resistance zone—a critical threshold that could reshape the altcoin’s trajectory for the second half of the year.

DOGE Rebounds from June Lows: Momentum Building

After bottoming out below $0.145 in late June, Dogecoin has rebounded with conviction, rising over 24% to trade around $0.1721 at the time of writing. This price recovery is backed by a surge in whale activity. According to IntoTheBlock, large wallet holders—those managing between 1 million and 100 million DOGE—have increased their netflows by 112% this week alone, indicating significant accumulation.

A Bitget analyst stated, “Whales are doubling down on DOGE amid signs of renewed bullish sentiment and broader market recovery.” This renewed confidence may stem from easing macroeconomic pressures and optimism surrounding a potential U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut.

Technical Indicators Suggest Potential Breakout Ahead

Dogecoin’s chart is beginning to show signs of a classic bullish pattern. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen from the low-40s to nearly 50, suggesting that bearish pressure is fading. Additionally, a bullish cup-and-handle formation is emerging on the weekly chart—often a precursor to major upward moves.

Another bullish signal is the potential MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) crossover forming, which historically aligns with trend reversals. If confirmed, DOGE could eye the $0.20 psychological barrier, with short-term targets stretching toward $0.23 to $0.25.

Caution: Resistance Still Strong, Address Growth Flat

Despite bullish momentum, concerns remain. Recent price action shows DOGE has repeatedly failed to decisively break the $0.17555 resistance level. Furthermore, active wallet data paints a less enthusiastic picture. Daily active addresses have remained stagnant despite price increases—indicating a lack of retail participation.

This divergence between price and address activity suggests that recent gains may be driven by speculative accumulation rather than organic user growth. RSI divergence, where the price forms higher lows but RSI trends lower, adds to the bearish caution.

If DOGE slips below its support at $0.1623, the door may reopen for a drop toward $0.13. Technical invalidation below $0.1567 could trigger a larger correction.

External Catalysts: Musk, ETFs, and Developer Activity

Dogecoin continues to benefit from its cultural status, with Elon Musk’s influence looming large. Although he hasn’t explicitly mentioned DOGE in his recent “America Party” political announcement, historical trends suggest that any Musk-related news tends to send DOGE prices upward due to speculative enthusiasm.

Additionally, whispers of a potential Dogecoin ETF are gaining traction. Asset managers like Grayscale and 21Shares have reportedly filed applications for DOGE-backed exchange-traded funds. Approval of such financial instruments could bring new institutional investors into the fold, further legitimizing Dogecoin.

Meanwhile, Dogecoin developers are reportedly working on integrations with social platforms in Latin America and Southeast Asia, along with Layer 2 scalability upgrades—developments that could enhance utility and long-term adoption.

Will Dogecoin Hit $0.25 in July?

Analysts remain cautiously optimistic. If Dogecoin can decisively close above $0.17555 and hold above $0.20, the next logical resistance zone lies between $0.23 and $0.25. Breaking above that could shift the narrative entirely, possibly propelling DOGE toward $0.30 by Q4 2025.

However, if trading volume weakens and address activity doesn’t improve, the recent rally could lose steam quickly.

Bottom Line

Dogecoin stands at a critical inflection point. While technicals and whale activity point toward a potential breakout, underlying retail metrics and resistance zones warrant caution. If DOGE manages to breach $0.17555 convincingly, a rally toward $0.25 could unfold rapidly. But failure to sustain current levels could trigger a renewed pullback.

With macroeconomic tailwinds, social influence, and technological development all aligning, July 2025 could be pivotal for Dogecoin. For now, traders are watching closely—$0.25 is the line in the sand.