Cardano Faces Oversold Signals: Will ETF Optimism Spark an ADA Recovery?

Cardano (ADA) continues to face strong selling pressure in the short and medium term, with its price slipping 1.38% to $0.816.

The ADA token trades below its 20-day moving average ($0.871) and 50-day moving average ($0.86), though it remains comfortably above the 200-day moving average ($0.735). This technical setup underscores ongoing bearish sentiment while pointing to solid long-term support.

Daily trading signals remain mixed. On-chain analysis shows elevated whale activity, while Reliance Global has recently added ADA to its treasury, signaling institutional confidence. Meanwhile, optimism surrounding the approval of a Cardano-based ETF, with odds soaring to 92%, has given investors reason to remain cautiously hopeful.

Oversold Signals Spark Rebound Speculation

Technical indicators suggest ADA may be oversold. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 36.6, approaching deeply oversold territory. Similarly, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is heavily negative, while the Stochastic RSI hovers near zero. These conditions often hint at potential rebound opportunities.

Still, momentum indicators present a different picture. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains flat, showing little conviction, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) suggests a weak overall trend.

Price action also highlights uncertainty: ADA opened lower at $0.806 compared to the previous close of $0.827, slipping into a tight intraday range of $0.792–$0.816. Moderate volatility further points to possible sideways movement in the near term.

Experts forecast ADA could consolidate between $0.768 and $0.790 this week, with rebounds struggling against resistance at $0.868. A decisive breakout above this level would confirm a bullish shift, while a drop below $0.768 could invite more downside.

DeFi Roadmap and Institutional Interest Support Outlook

Beyond technical signals, Cardano’s fundamentals continue to develop. The Cardano Foundation has unveiled a new roadmap, emphasizing decentralized finance (DeFi) growth, governance, and ecosystem expansion.

Millions in ADA have been allocated toward DeFi funding, real-world asset tokenization, and community-driven governance through Delegated Representatives.

Institutional adoption is also gaining traction, bolstered by ETF approval speculation and ADA’s inclusion in Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap Fund. With whale accumulation increasing and large wallets now holding nearly 30% of supply, longer-term sentiment remains positive.

Market analysts, however, remain cautious. Anton Kharitonov of Traders Union notes that “as long as Cardano trades below major resistance, the upside case lacks credibility.” The near-term outlook is therefore one of sideways consolidation, with rebounds possible but limited unless ADA reclaims key resistance levels.